Payments is being pulled in opposite directions right now. Networks are tightening rules and defending margins, merchants are pushing back on rising fees, and artificial intelligence is accelerating decisions faster than regulation can comfortably keep up. The tension between cost, control, and innovation is defining how money moves as we enter into the new year.

1. Big Tech Eyes a Bigger Role in Banking
A PayPal-backed move signals renewed ambition from tech players to go deeper into regulated financial territory. If approved, a U.S. bank license would dramatically change how these firms control settlement, data, and distribution and how traditional players compete with them.
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2. Card Fees Quietly Creep Onto the Dinner Check
Restaurants are increasingly passing card costs directly to consumers, often without much notice. For payments professionals, this raises a bigger question: does fee transparency normalize surcharging, or does it accelerate pushback against card acceptance altogether?
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3. Swipe Fees Become a Consumer Flashpoint
The Merchant Payments Coalition estimates card fees could cost consumers over $20B during the 2025 holiday season. While the perspective is clearly pro-merchant, it offers a valuable window into growing public frustration and potential legislative momentum.
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4. Fiserv and Mastercard Double Down on AI
There’s nothing flashy about this move from two of the industry’s biggest players. AI is being applied where it actually matters: fraud checks, authorization decisions, and transaction routing the unglamorous parts of payments that directly impact margins and performance. Mastercard’s push into “agentic commerce,” where AI agents can securely transact on behalf of consumers, hints at where things are headed. Love it or hate it, AI is no longer a side experiment in payments. It’s steadily being woven into the core infrastructure and it’s not going away.
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Taken together, these stories point to a single reality: payments is becoming more data-driven, more automated, and more tightly regulated at the same time.

Networks are tightening control over transaction data. Regulators are shaping who can operate and at what scale. Meanwhile, AI is increasingly responsible for managing the complexity behind underwriting, fraud, pricing, and portfolio performance.

Whether firms embrace it or not, artificial intelligence is becoming essential to how payments businesses protect margins and manage risk. Clean data is no longer just a compliance issue, it directly impacts interchange outcomes, pricing models, and merchant profitability.

At the same time, consumer sensitivity to fees is rising. As surcharges and cash discounting become more visible, the industry may face renewed scrutiny not just from regulators, but from the public itself.

The next phase of payments won’t be won by speed alone. It will favor those who can balance automation, compliance, and operational discipline while staying flexible as rules, expectations, and technology continue to shift.

Where do you see the most pressure building right now? AI adoption, fee transparency, or regulatory oversight?

Hit reply and let us know. We may feature your perspective in a future edition of The Transaction Times.

Made for those who move money.
-Will Redd, Founder of The Transaction Times